pray-calc-ml/.wiki/Architecture.md

Architecture

This page explains how the pipeline works end-to-end: how raw sighting records become training data, what each module does, and how the pieces fit together.

---

Overview

Raw sighting data
  ↓
[openfajr.py]      OpenFajr iCal feed (Birmingham, UK, 2016-present)
[sightings.py]     Manually compiled records (35+ locations worldwide)
[geocode.py]       Geocoding: city/region names → lat/lng
  ↓
Standardized records: { date, lat, lng, elevation_m, local_time, utc_offset }
  ↓
[elevation.py]     Open-Elevation API: fill missing elevation_m values
  ↓
[angle_calc.py]    PyEphem back-calculation: UTC moment → solar depression angle
  ↓
[pipeline.py]      Quality filter: drop implausible angles (< 7° Fajr / < 10° Isha)
  ↓
data/processed/fajr_angles.csv
data/processed/isha_angles.csv
  ↓
[01_exploratory_analysis.ipynb]   EDA + linear baseline + gradient boosting

---

Modules

src/pipeline.py

The master script. Runs all steps in sequence.

python -m src.pipeline [--no-elevation-lookup]

Responsibilities:

1. Call openfajr.load() and verified_sightings.load() to get raw records
2. Call elevation.enrich() to fill missing elevation values
3. Call angle_calc.compute() for each record
4. Drop records with implausible angles
5. Write fajr_angles.csv and isha_angles.csv

src/angle_calc.py

The back-calculation engine. Takes a confirmed sighting record and returns the solar depression angle at the observed moment.

Method:

1. Convert local time to UTC: utc = local_dt - timedelta(hours=utc_offset)
2. Set up a PyEphem.Observer with:
   • lat / lon from the record
   • elevation in metres
   • pressure = 1013.25 hPa (standard atmosphere)
   • temp = 15.0 °C (standard atmosphere)
3. Set observer.date to the UTC datetime
4. Call ephem.Sun(observer) to get the Sun's position
5. depression_angle = -math.degrees(sun.alt) (negative because sun is below horizon)

Atmospheric refraction is applied automatically by PyEphem at the specified pressure and temperature. This is important: near the horizon, refraction can lift the apparent solar disk by 0.5°-1.0°.

src/collect/openfajr.py

Fetches and parses the OpenFajr Birmingham iCal feed from calendar.google.com.

The feed contains one VEVENT per day. The DTSTART field uses a Z suffix indicating UTC. The SUMMARY field identifies the prayer type.

Known issue: around BST transition dates (late March, late October), a small number of records have UTC times that produce physically impossible depression angles (sun above horizon, or angle < 7°). These are caught by the quality filter.

src/collect/verified_sightings.py

A Python list of manually compiled sighting records. Each record is a dictionary with:

Field	Type	Description
prayer	"fajr" or "isha"	Which prayer the sighting confirms
date_local	"YYYY-MM-DD"	Calendar date at the sighting location
time_local	"HH:MM"	24-hour local time
utc_offset	float	Hours from UTC
lat	float	Decimal degrees (north positive)
lng	float	Decimal degrees (east positive)
elevation_m	float	Metres ASL (0 = will be looked up)
source	str	Citation
notes	str	Observer notes

src/geocode.py

Geocoding module. Converts city or region names to lat/lng coordinates using the Nominatim API (OpenStreetMap). Used during the data ingestion pipeline when records are provided with location names rather than explicit coordinates.

Caches results in data/raw/geocode_cache.json to avoid redundant API calls.

src/elevation.py

Queries the Open-Elevation API for records where elevation_m == 0.

Batches requests (max 100 per call). Writes results back to the record dict.

---

Data Flow in Detail

1. Raw record format

Every sighting, regardless of source, must eventually become:

date       YYYY-MM-DD (local calendar date)
lat        float, decimal degrees, north positive
lng        float, decimal degrees, east positive
elevation_m float, metres above sea level
time_local  HH:MM, 24-hour local time at sighting
utc_offset  float, hours from UTC (e.g. 1.0 for BST)
prayer     "fajr" or "isha"
source     citation string
notes      observer notes

If a record has a city name but no lat/lng, geocode.py fills it in. If a record has elevation_m == 0, elevation.py fills it via the Open-Elevation API.

2. UTC conversion

utc_datetime = date + time_local - utc_offset (hours)

This is the single most error-prone step. Common failure modes:

• Using the wrong UTC offset (e.g. forgetting summer/winter DST)
• Using the standard timezone offset when the sighting date was in the alternate season
• Using the nominal timezone when the actual location's offset differs (e.g. parts of India)

All manually compiled records in verified_sightings.py include explicit utc_offset values per-date, not per-timezone-name. This avoids DST ambiguity.

3. Solar position calculation

PyEphem computes solar altitude using the VSOP87 planetary theory, accurate to approximately 0.01°. Atmospheric refraction is the main source of uncertainty: the standard atmosphere model (1013.25 hPa, 15°C) is a good average but actual refraction varies with local conditions. For twilight observations near -12° altitude, refraction contributes negligibly.

Depression angle = -altitude. When the sun is below the horizon, ephem.Sun.alt is negative. The depression angle is the absolute value.

4. Quality filter

Records are dropped if:

• fajr_angle < 7° — physically impossible (sun would still be in night)
• isha_angle < 10° — same reasoning for Isha
• Angle is NaN — calculation failed

These thresholds are conservative. Genuine sighting records produce 8°-21° for Fajr and 11°-22° for Isha. Values below 7° / 10° indicate a data entry error, most commonly a UTC offset mistake or a DST clock-change artifact.

---

Output Schema

Both output CSVs share this schema:

Column	Type	Description
date	string	YYYY-MM-DD local date
utc_dt	string	ISO 8601 UTC datetime
lat	float	Decimal degrees
lng	float	Decimal degrees
elevation_m	float	Metres ASL
day_of_year	int	1-366
fajr_angle or isha_angle	float	Solar depression angle (°)
source	string	Citation
notes	string	Observer notes

---

Source Hierarchy

Records are ranked by data quality:

Tier	Source type	Example
1	Community astrophotography, panel-voted	OpenFajr Birmingham
2	DSLR + SQM instrumental observation	Kassim Bahali 2018 Malaysia
3	SQM photometry only	Saksono 2020 Indonesia
4	Multi-observer naked-eye, documented	Asim Yusuf UK, Hizbul Ulama UK
5	Single trained observer, per-date log	NRIAG Egypt individual nights
6	Published mean per season, time inferred	Hail Saudi Arabia (seasonal means)

Tier 6 records (inferred times) are marked in notes. They contribute to geographic diversity but carry more uncertainty than direct observations.

---

Known Limitations

1. Birmingham dominance. The OpenFajr dataset provides ~4,000 records but all from one location at 52.5°N. Any ML model trained on this data will extrapolate to all other latitudes. Geographic diversity is the primary gap.

2. Isha data scarcity. Only ~43 Isha records vs ~4,100 Fajr records. The Isha network depends on Shafaq al-Abyad observations, which are less systematically documented.

3. Atmospheric variability. The standard atmosphere model (1013.25 hPa, 15°C) does not capture day-to-day refraction variation. On cold clear nights, refraction is higher; on hot dry nights, lower. This introduces ~0.1°-0.3° uncertainty per record.

4. Observer skill variation. Naked-eye observations depend on the observer's dark adaptation, experience, and site conditions. The depression angle for a given "true dawn" varies across observers by up to 2°.

---

← ML Crunching · Data Sources →