pray-calc-ml/research/hail-saudi-2018.md
Aric Camarata 6e0f4a679c Rebuild as Python data science project
Replaces the original JS calibration library with a pure Python pipeline
for collecting and back-calculating solar depression angles from human-verified
Fajr and Isha prayer sightings.

What this does:
- src/pipeline.py: master pipeline; fetches iCal + manual records, back-calculates
  angles via PyEphem, applies quality filters, exports two clean CSVs
- src/collect/openfajr.py: parses the OpenFajr Birmingham iCal feed (~4,018 records)
- src/collect/verified_sightings.py: manually compiled records from peer-reviewed
  studies (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, UK, USA, Canada, and more)
- src/angle_calc.py: PyEphem back-calculation with atmospheric refraction
- src/elevation.py: Open-Elevation API batch lookup

Datasets generated:
- data/processed/fajr_angles.csv: 4,105 confirmed Fajr records, 35 locations,
  latitude range -37.8 to 53.7 degrees, date range 1985-2026
- data/processed/isha_angles.csv: 43 confirmed Isha records, 20+ locations

Also includes:
- notebooks/01_exploratory_analysis.ipynb: latitude, TOY, elevation pattern analysis
- research/: academic paper summaries (not training data)
- data/raw/sources.md: full citation table for all data sources
2026-02-25 19:32:47 -05:00

39 lines
1.6 KiB
Markdown

# Hail, Saudi Arabia — Khalifa 2018
## Paper
Khalifa, A.S. "Astronomical determination of Fajr and Isha prayer times at Hail, Saudi Arabia."
*NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics*, 7: 22-28, 2018.
## Location
Hail (27.52°N, 41.70°E, ~1020m elevation) — a city on the Najd plateau in central Saudi Arabia.
The high elevation and desert conditions produce excellent sky transparency.
## Method
80 total observation nights in 2014-2015. 32 nights selected for excellent atmospheric
visibility (no clouds, no dust). Naked-eye observation by trained observers.
## Results
- **Mean Fajr depression:** 14.4° (range 12.8°-16.1°)
- **Mean Isha depression (Shafaq Abyad):** 14.8° (range 13.2°-16.4°)
- **Seasonal variation:** Higher angles in winter, lower in summer (consistent with other studies)
## Significance
At 1020m elevation, Hail is the highest-elevation site in the Saudi/Gulf region with published
Fajr observations. The results show a slightly higher mean angle than sea-level desert sites
in Egypt (13.5°-14.5°), consistent with the hypothesis that elevation increases the apparent
depression angle at true dawn (the observer is above more of the atmosphere, so the first light
of dawn appears at a slightly steeper angle).
The Hail dataset is particularly useful for the elevation variable in the ML model — it is one
of the few high-altitude desert sites with per-season data.
## Note for ML Training
The per-season records in `verified_sightings.py` for Hail are constructed from the paper's
reported seasonal means, with observation times estimated from sunrise data. They are marked
as "time inferred" in `data/raw/sources.md`.